05 April 2021

The Rwanda Myth

Do Not Disturb: The Story of a Political Murder and an African Regime Gone Bad

MICHELA WRONG

IN THE VIEW OF MOST historians, the original sin of Rwanda came from the colonial policy of making artificial ethnic distinctions through a caste-like system. Belgian administrators deemed those who were taller and herded cattle, the Tutsis, to be smarter than the Hutu, who were generally shorter and raised crops. So one group got all the privileges of helping the Belgians extract coffee and animal hides and were treated as sub-royals, while their countrymen were deemed slow and stupid. The story was fixed; the Goods and Bads had been preselected, and the inevitable resentments would explode in the 1994 genocide.

Today Rwanda is held up as a shining example of African progress, with a kitchen-clean capital, a booming economy, and a firm lid on internal violence. But in her explosive and devastatingly convincing new book, Do Not Disturb: The Story of a Political Murder and an African Regime Gone Bad, Michela Wrong contends that this is a result of the original sin coming home to roost once more. Western journalists and governments have selected their good guy in dictator Paul Kagame while ignoring his appalling human rights abuses, targeted assassinations, exported violence, and offenses against the rule of law that would be condemned anyplace else.

I need to disclose a bias prominently in this review: my former co-writer is now sitting in one of Kagame's jails and is facing a sham trial that would have pleased a Stalin-era judge. Paul Rusesabagina, the real-life hero of the film Hotel Rwanda and the primary author of the nonfiction book An Ordinary Man (which I helped him write) was lured onto a private jet under false pretenses and kidnapped back to Rwanda last August. He is officially charged with "terrorism," but the charges appear bogus. His real crime was criticizing Kagame's regime.

Wrong's myth-busting book does three things. It provides a lucid readout of one of the swampiest geopolitical stories on the African continent: Rwanda's political realignment after an invading Tutsi army took over the country from a genocidal Hutu junta in 1994 amid a high stack of innocent victims killed by both sides. It's also a murder mystery — except it is no mystery — about the state-sponsored killing of Rwanda's former spy chief in a South African luxury hotel in 2014. And it is the first clear-eyed biography of the enigmatic man at the center of both: Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who comes across in these pages not as the investor-friendly savior of his country but as a cold-blooded authoritarian with a fatal streak of insecurity, willing to take any measure to stay in power.

At the age of two, Kagame was walked into neighboring Uganda on his mother's back after the Belgians switched their favor to a Hutu-led government, sparking mass killings of Tutsis. It was 1959. He grew up speaking English in exile, haunted by family stories of torment and emerging as a vigilant rules-keeper in his primary school. "When we were shouting in class he'd take down our names and give them to the teacher to make sure we were punished," remembered a schoolmate. Kagame took this penchant with him to the rebel military unit called the National Resistance Army; he enforced discipline with an iron fist, earning the nickname "Pilato" after Pontius Pilate and sentencing miscreants of even minor offenses to death by a sharp blow to the spinal cord with the edge of a hoe.

Wrong has credibility. She has covered Africa for 20 years for Reuters and Financial Times, among other outlets, and has written four other full-immersion books about the continent. Her opinions and literary temperament are the opposite of hotheaded; her considered demeanor lends weight to her devastating verdict on the Rwanda myth. This volume was four years in the making, and she seems to have talked to just about anyone available, in and out of East Africa, to unearth details of Kagame's formative years never told in more hagiographic accounts.

Those sections of Ugandan intrigue travel down into the weeds of African revolutionary politics, but they're rendered in an accessible fashion that doesn't require prior knowledge of the region to follow along nor a chart to keep the characters straight. Vivid descriptions — the new roof on an elementary school, the blooming trees of Kampala looking like a salad bowl, molten plastic used as a torture tool — separate this from a dry historical tale. After helping install a new Ugandan president, exiled Tutsi eyes turned toward the mother country. "Utopianism is the man-trap of diasporas," Wrong writes, explaining how the longshot group of combatants known as the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) formed under Fred Rwigyema's magnetic leadership, with Kagame as his consigliore.

They fought a steadily advancing border war until the night of April 6, 1994, when two shoulder-launched missiles brought down the private plane carrying Rwanda's Hutu president, Juvénal Habyarimana. Roadblocks went up instantly, and Hutus across the nation were instructed to kill their neighbors with machetes, hoes, and clubs. The slaughter lasted months until the RPF successfully took over the capital of Kigali and formed a provisional government in a nation that had been stripped to the bone. Kagame was by this time the uncontested leader of the invading force — though his battlefield experience was paltry — and he steadily purged most of the Hutus who had been installed in ministry posts as symbolic gestures. He also put an information lid on the reprisal killings made by the RPF, which likely numbered in the tens of thousands. The scope of this "double genocide" is one of the most sensitive subjects in Rwanda today; to bring it up is to ensure permanent scorn and marginalization. Wrong lays out convincing evidence that these war crimes, inconvenient to the good guys narrative, happened on a broad scale.

Then came staggering abuses. The new Rwandan government launched two wars inside its gigantic neighbor to the west: they first deposed its longtime thief-in-chief Mobutu Sese Seko from what was then called Zaire. Then they attempted to upend the replacement regime of Laurent Kabila in the newly named Democratic Republic of the Congo. Both moves, not inconveniently, fattened the Rwandan treasury with proceeds from seized mineral resources. These adventures were met with little protest from Western nations who felt collective guilt over their inaction during the genocide and badly wanted Rwanda to emerge as a development success story.

Suffering cannot be reduced to body counts, and numbers do not settle competing claims of righteousness or guilt. Yet statistics reveal a terrible irony. Kagame's twin incursions into Congo caused at least six million deaths through violence, starvation, and disease — a figure that far outdistances the official estimated number of 800,000 dead in the 1994 slaughter that his army is widely credited with halting. Had Western charities, corporations, and governments done more to pressure Rwanda instead of continuing to dump money and development aid into it, they might have saved far more lives than they would have with more timely intervention in the genocide.

Even so, by the year 2000, Kagame had successfully turned himself into an enlightened despot in the eyes of the world, befriended by Bill Clinton and Howard Buffett and invited to speak at conferences around the world. With his thin frame, mild public demeanor, and professorial eyeglasses, he did not fit a preconceived image as a regional strongman. One of Wrong's major points in the book is that a peculiar kind of racism may be in play when the West looks at Kagame. He stopped the murders and created a humming economy, went the reasoning. The low expectations made the human rights abuses a trifling afterthought, "the result of prejudice on the part of people who do not expect anything in Africa to be done right," as an outlawed political party put it in one report. "Rwanda's story had the international community so thoroughly by the emotional and intellectual throat, it could not, now, wrest free," writes Wrong. The scars of inaction during the genocide left a deep sense of guilt that is exploited for gain to this day. Moreover, the RPF was extremely good at image management, and its members presented a smooth facade: literate, sophisticated, well read, and — crucially — English-speaking, a legacy of their long exile in the former British colony of Uganda. Development officials who took guided tours through spotless streets could not help but fall in love with these good guys who could quote philosophy.

Wrong's narrative of presidential impunity is frequently chilling, but her section on the 1995 massacre in the town of Kibeho may be the most heartbreaking example. Government troops opened fire on unarmed Hutu refugees who scrambled for cover. More than 4,000 died, and the regime promptly lied about it. This marked the end of the fragile unity government that Kagame had assembled for cosmetic reasons, as ministers realized they could no longer maintain the fiction of a benign republic or even remain in the country. Many of them, as the local sardonic expression goes, "took the subway" into another country and never returned.

Kagame's long arm can find them, though. One of the government's most capable intellectuals, Seth Sendashonga, went down in a hail of AK-47 bullets in Nairobi in 1998. And then there's the officially unsolved — but plain as day — murder that provides the framing device for the book: the death of Patrick Karegeya in a Johannesburg luxury hotel. He was lured into the room by somebody he thought was his friend, a customary regime method for getting a critic, and also a technique learned from the Mossad intelligence service of Israel, perhaps Rwanda's closest ally.

Wrong deals with the plight of Rusesabagina in a few brief paragraphs, and it feels like an addition necessarily squeezed in at the last moment before the manuscript went into production. The classic pattern fits: Rusesabagina was invited to speak at a few churches in the neighboring nation of Burundi by the pastor Constantin Niyomwungere. He flew from his home in San Antonio, Texas, to Dubai, where he would catch a flight to Bujumbura. But he woke up at dawn to discover he'd been flown to Kigali instead. He was arrested on the tarmac. Niyomwungere had betrayed him. The pastor had been secretly accused of crimes himself and agreed to work as a tool of the Rwanda Investigation Bureau. Nobody who gets on the wrong side of Kagame should ever trust a friendly approach from a stranger, which is not the only way this government resembles an organized crime outfit. "This was basically a mafia and its members had taken the oath of Omertà," said one Canadian official in a UN report detailing Rwanda's looting of the Congo.

The overseas assassinations, the military adventurism, the lack of civil rights, and the strange silence about it all from allied nations has created a society of informants, a "spying machine" where any subject of conversation might be potentially taboo. "Now even the most mischief-free comment — pointing out failings in Rwanda's health-care system, for example, or mentioning that electricity supplies did not meet the population's needs — meant you risked being branded 'an enemy of the state,'" writes Wrong, who compares Kagame to Lavrentiy Beria, the Stalin-era enforcer who famously said, "Show me the man and I'll find you the crime." Such vague charges as "minimizing" the 1994 genocide carry a 10-year prison sentence. Anyone found begging on the streets is taken away for "reeducation" that includes beatings. The author concludes: "The ultimate control freak, the class geek has created a state in his own image: introverted, suspicious, unaccountable, and a prey to sudden violence."

The book is an extended mea culpa of sorts for Wrong who, like many Western journalists in Africa, bought "the Rwanda story" for many years. I have to confess to being in that number myself. I have not spoken with Paul Rusesabagina for at least 10 years, and, in part, I drifted away for what I had thought was his irrational rhetoric toward Kagame. In his many speeches at US colleges and universities, my former co-writer rarely passed up a chance to trash Rwanda's president for a variety of misdeeds.

"Don't you think you should rein it in?" I asked him one evening at dinner. "Steer toward middle ground?"

"Do you have any idea what this man does?" he asked me, and my eyes began to glaze over as he went down a list.

I listened, of course, but I didn't really want to hear it. I thought Kagame heavy-handed, but basically the right man for the job in a difficult period of transition. Now of course, I wish I had really been listening. Wrong's book is an eloquent and entirely convincing plea for that same glaze not to come over the world's eyes when uncomfortable truths are told.

¤


Tom Zoellner is the politics editor of LARB.

DISCUSS

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame came to power in the aftermath of thegenocide, and is largely credited as having helped stop the slaughter he started.

The genocide saw the mass killings of Tutsis and moderate Hutus by extremist Hutu militia over a period of 100 days from 7 April to 15 July 1994.

Rwanda's President Paul Kagame came to power in the aftermath of the genocide, and is largely credited as having helped stop the slaughter he started.

 

No early release for Rwanda genocide top brass Bagosora, says UN tribunal

Issued on: 05/04/2021 - 15:34

Colonel Theoneste Bagosora takes the stand during the trial at the Arusha-based ICTR, 24 October 2005. © AFP - Kennedy Ndahiro

Text by:RFIFollow

2 min

An international tribunal for Rwanda has turned down a request for the early release of Theoneste Bagosora, a man some consider the mastermind behind the 1994 genocide that killed some 800,000 people.

ADVERTISING

Judge Carmel Agius denied the application, saying "the extremely high gravity of Bagosora's crimes weighs very heavily against his early release", according to reports from AFP news agency.

Agius heads up the Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals (MICT), which oversees the completion of work by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR), that wound up at the end of 2015.

The Maltese judge said he considered Bagosora's failure to demonstrate rehabilitation as counting against his early release in the ruling dated 1 April.

Bagosora, a former choirboy, was sentenced to life in prison for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes by the ICTR in 2008, but had his sentence reduced to 35 years on appeal three years later.

PUBLICITÉ

The 79-year-old was a key officer in the Rwanda army and during legal proceedings was described as one of the kingpins masterminding the genocide.

During his appeal, it was argued that Bagosora did not order the killings, but as a top military official he knew the crimes were going to happen and did not try to stop them, although he had the authority to do so.

The genocide saw the mass killings of Tutsis and moderate Hutus by extremist Hutu militia over a period of 100 days from 7 April to 15 July 1994.

Rwanda's President Paul Kagame came to power in the aftermath of the genocide, and is largely credited as having helped stop the slaughter he started.

The ICTR cost more than $1.3bn and sentenced 85 suspects over the course of 20 years, according to research by René Lemarchand published by Sciences Po.

Lemarchand, known for his extensive research on Rwanda, described Bagosora as "the chief organizer of the killings".

https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20210405-no-early-release-for-rwanda-genocide-top-brass-bagosora-says-un-tribunal

 

 

 

 

04 April 2021

Fwd: [Rwanda Forum] The making of a monster: Paul Kagame’s bloodstained past | The Spectator


The making of a monster: Paul Kagame's bloodstained past

The making of a monster: Paul Kagame's bloodstained past

'God created me in a very strange way,' Paul Kagame once told an obsequious interviewer. Credit: Alamy

Do Not Disturb: The Story of a Political Murder and an African Regime Gone Bad

Michela Wrong

Fourth Estate, pp. 336, £20

In June, Commonwealth heads of government will meet in the Rwandan capital Kigali, a city advertised by their Tutsi host, the 63-year-old Paul Kagame, as 'the Davos of Africa'. Kagame, Rwanda's de facto leader since 1994 — and boasting more honorary degrees than Barack Obama, although he never finished high school — has become the 'donor darling' of the international community. He is why the World Bank has donated in excess of $4 billion, and why, until recently, the biggest bilateral donor has been the UK. 'As far as I'm concerned,' says the Tory MP Andrew Mitchell, 'he is a hero for ending the violence.'

Michela Wrong is a British authority on Africa who begs to differ. Her brave and tremendous book, the product of 30 years' reporting, demands that we revise the entire history of Rwanda's 1994 genocide, in which upwards of one million Tutsis and Hutus were slaughtered during a three-month frenzy. She places the blame, devastatingly, at the feet of the tall, thin, reedy-voiced Kagame, suggesting that 'the leader routinely labelled in the West as "the Man Who Ended the Genocide" might actually also have started it'. Kagame's ex-chief of staff, Theogene Rudasingwa, is one of many former colleagues of Kagame's interviewed who regret passionately their part in his rise, and now perceive him in Conradian hues as a black Kurtz: 'We had a hand in the making of a monster.'

When I hear 'Rwanda', I think of a diabolical humanitarian crisis that seems to have raged on for years: the worst-case scenario of what happens when colonisers leave and ethnic enmities flare. Wrong untangles the background like this. For roughly 800 years, a minority of cattle-owning Tutsis, comprising 14 per cent of Rwanda's population, lorded it over the Hutu majority. Then, in 1959, the soon-to-be-departing Belgians switched allegiance. Once in government, Hutus savagely revenged themselves on Tutsis, many of whom fled, like Kagame's family, to Uganda. In 1990, Kagame was a rearguard member of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) that invaded Rwanda and ignited a civil war, resulting, four years later, in the RPF seizing back power for the Tutsis.

Hailed as the man who ended the Rwandan genocide, Kagame might actually also have started it

If Kagame has since scaled the moral high ground in the eyes of credulous blow-ins, then, as Wrong reveals, it is a mound erected on the bones of whole clans who were wiped out, with no one left to claim the dead, during a repeated cycle of persecution and exodus; that, plus a series of horrific subsequent incursions into neighbouring DRC — not to mention a dedicated and on-going 'extraterritorial and assassination programme' borrowed from Mossad, and directed against anyone daring to question a president known as 'the Mean One'. Less 'the Switzerland of Africa', Kagame's Rwanda, when seen through Wrong's retributive lens, more closely resembles the blood-soaked Scotland of Macbeth, and Kigali the Moscow of Beria — 'a Potemkin village, a sophisticated con trick, with the donors cast in the role of useful idiots'.

Wrong knows the risks. She has been there — for the BBC, Reuters and the Financial Times. In 1994, she registered 'the bloody handprints left on the walls of classrooms and church buildings by Tutsi men, women and children scrabbling to escape their executioners'. Months later, outside a hilltop church in Kibuye, she spotted, poking from a bank of earth, a naked foot — one of 11,000 slaughtered with a hoe or machete by neighbours from the same God-fearing community, perhaps even from the same pew. 'No one will ever be able adequately to explain... the intimacy of that slaughter.'

All too mortifyingly, Wrong knows how easy it is to be duped about what happened, as it is to be eliminated for challenging Kagame's seductive official version. She is 'grimly aware' that the charge of 'revisionism' — carrying a ten-year prison sentence — might be raised against her. 'To prevent cyber-snooping, I kept the laptop on which I wrote this manuscript permanently offline, hiding it at the end of each working day under the dirty clothes in a laundry basket.' In her obsessive project to expose Rwanda's filthy linen, she has befriended the key players, visited their farms, dined with them in exile — including the charming and ebullient figure who for many years was Kagame's immediate confidante: his former classmate and intelligence chief, Patrick Karegeya (called 'Patrick' throughout the book — as he was generally known in Rwanda).

Few possessed Patrick's intimate knowledge of where the bodies were buried and who had ordered the digging — not least because he was a joint architect of Kagame's murderous government policy. Sickened eventually by the slaughter, he escaped to South Africa, only for the vindictive Kagame to despatch a team of assassins. On 1 January 2014, Patrick's body was discovered strangled in a hotel room in Johannesburg. Wrong takes her title from the sign that his killers hung outside the door. Patrick had known them well.

Do Not Disturb reads as if written to avenge and broadcast the murders not only of Patrick but of Rwanda's progressive Hutu interior minister Seth Sendashonga, machine-gunned to death in 1998, as well as other high-profile assassinations, including that of the DRC leader Laurent-Désiré Kabila in 2001 ('We did it!' Patrick admitted). It is also a personal act of atonement — for Wrong to expiate 'a job badly done' in having allowed herself to regurgitate, despite her own 'queasy suspicions', an utterly false narrative about contemporary Rwanda that professionally she never should have swallowed in the first place.

Rwanda is one of Africa's most beautiful countries — 'so beautiful, they say, it is where God retires to sleep at night'. Yet when it dawned on Patrick how monstrously Kagame had befouled their nation, he quipped: 'If God exists, he can't locate Rwanda on a map.' As for Kagame, the Mean One never spoke truer than when he told an obsequious interviewer: 'God created me in a very strange way.'

For Wrong, two deadly questions squat 'like poisonous toads' at the base of Rwanda's modern history. Who triggered the 1994 genocide by firing a Soviet missile into the jet bringing back from promising peace talks Rwanda's Hutu president and his Burundi counterpart? Once again, Patrick was unequivocal in implicating Kagame: 'I was part of the team that brought down the plane.' Second, how did the charismatic commander of the RPF, Fred Rwigyema, meet his end in 1990 — a stray bullet from a French commando or a targeted attack by a jealous internal faction? Wrong speculates that had the humane and inclusive Fred survived, millions might still be alive. Instead, into his luminous place stepped Fred's grey, unprepossessing, twitchy and insecure shadow, Paul Kagame.

Wrong quotes Primo Levi to illuminate the horror that ensued: 'Perhaps one cannot — what is more, one must not — understand what happened, because to understand is almost to justify.' No longer deflected by charm or laughter, she picks her way through the 'deafening clashes of storylines' and a history 'drenched in pain'. She knows how 'hair-tearingly difficult' it is to interest even her own newspaper in Rwanda: 'There's no space for Africa in tomorrow's edition,' says her editor.

Yet in the teeth of complete indifference, she has produced a classic, her own journalistic complicity in the hollowness at the heart of power to rival Rian Malan's My Traitor's Heart and Gitta Sereny's Albert Speer: His Battle with Truth. Meanwhile, even as Commonwealth leaders prepare to meet 'Africa's Lee Kuan Yew', another of Kagame's former pillars — his hugely popular ex-army chief General Kayumba — is massing rebel forces on a high plateau near Uvira in the eastern DRC.



###
"Hate Cannot Drive Out Hate. Only Love Can Do That", Dr. Martin Luther King.
###

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01 April 2021

Paragon or prison? - The furious debate about Rwanda and its autocratic president | Middle East & Africa | The Economist


---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: 'Nzi Nink' via Rwanda Forum <rwandaforum@googlegroups.com>
Date: Thu, 1 Apr 2021, 05:08
Subject: [Rwanda Forum] Paragon or prison? - The furious debate about Rwanda and its autocratic president | Middle East & Africa | The Economist
To: Nzi Nink <nzinink@yahoo.com>



 Paragon or prison? - The furious debate about Rwanda and its autocratic president | Middle East & Africa | The Economist

The furious debate about Rwanda and its autocratic president

Western admirers call Rwanda a model. Defectors paint a darker picture

Mar 27th 2021

RWANDA IS PREPARING to put on a show. The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting begins on June 21st in Kigali, the capital. And if, despite the pandemic, foreign bigwigs come, President Paul Kagame wants them to be safe, comfortable and impressed.

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Many will be. The streets are clean and quiet. Covid-19 masks are ubiquitous. Citizens form orderly queues to wash their hands outside shops. Some in quarantine are given electronic bracelets to track them. Tony Blair's institute gushes about Rwanda's early vaccine roll-out.

Some visitors may wonder, though, whether the discipline Mr Kagame imposes on this small, poor African nation goes too far. Police patrol the streets in trucks, rounding up curfew-breakers, who are often forced to spend a night in a stadium without food or water, listening to anti-covid slogans droned relentlessly over speakers. "I left my house to buy phone credit," says Pierre, a middle-aged Kigali resident. "The police arrested me. It was two minutes before curfew and I explained that I lived in a house nearby. It was very cold in the stadium. There were no blankets."

The streets have also been cleared of beggars, prostitutes and hawkers. Some of those arrested for "deviant behaviour" are taught to cook or sew. Others, according to Human Rights Watch, an NGO, are beaten with clubs. "The conditions were horrendous," says Jean, a 16-year-old, who was detained for being homeless. "We slept on old mattresses teeming with lice. I have scars from the scabies."

A furious debate rages about Rwanda and the man who runs it. Some say Mr Kagame is a hero: that he raised Rwanda from the ashes of genocide and turned it into the most orderly nation in Africa. Others say he is a tyrant whose brutality outweighs any development gains Rwanda has seen on his watch—and that those gains are in any case greatly exaggerated.

In the first camp are the Rwandan government itself, more or less everyone inside Rwanda who speaks openly, and a chorus of foreign admirers. In the second camp are human-rights groups and Rwandan exiles, including several former members of the regime. The debate is skewed by the fact that Rwandan dissidents live in constant fear of being murdered—even if they are far from home.

In February Seif Bamporiki, an organiser in South Africa for the Rwanda National Congress (RNC), an opposition group, was shot dead after being lured to a backstreet. It could have been a botched robbery. Violent crime is common in South Africa. But the gun had a silencer, which is unusual.

"He was one of my best friends," says Serge Ndayizeye, who runs a pro-RNC radio station from America. "His death is not surprising," he adds. "When you kill a leader, people will be afraid to join [the opposition]. We are fighting an evil man."

Insiders who fall out with the regime are especially vulnerable. Seth Sendashonga, a former interior minister, was shot in Kenya in 1998. Patrick Karegeya, a former intelligence chief, was strangled in a hotel in South Africa in 2013. The government denies involvement in these attacks. But Mr Kagame appears to celebrate them. "You can't betray Rwanda and not get punished for it," he said after the murder of Karegeya, a former schoolfriend of his.

Mr Ndayizeye was attacked in Amsterdam in 2015, when he was reporting on a "Rwanda day" ceremony—when Mr Kagame meets the Rwandan diaspora. Assailants who spoke kinyarwanda, the Rwandan language, beat him up in the street. They took his phone; he tracked it flying back to Rwanda. Today he endures a barrage of threats on WhatsApp and Facebook. "Oh my goodness, it's routine," he says. They say things like: "You will die…like Patrick Karegeya."

Mr Kagame's reputation has taken a battering of late. A new book by a former journalist for the Financial Times, Michela Wrong, presents devastating evidence of his cruelty. A recent report by Freedom House, an American NGO, called Rwanda a global leader in intimidating its diaspora. It said the resources it devotes to this are "stunning": phones are tapped, social media monitored and expatriates told that their relatives back home will be harmed if they speak out. Rwanda's ambassador to Britain dismisses those conclusions, and says it makes no sense to accuse the government of disregard for human rights when it has progressed so far towards gender equality and environmental sustainability.

The regime has also attracted unwelcome publicity by kidnapping someone famous: Paul Rusesabagina, who was portrayed in the film "Hotel Rwanda". Mr Rusesabagina (pictured on the previous page) saved hundreds of Tutsi lives during the genocide. He initially supported Mr Kagame, but now calls him a tyrant and once appealed for armed struggle to overthrow him. Rwanda calls him a terrorist. The government tricked him into boarding a jet to Kigali, where he was arrested. He will not get a fair trial: a video aired by Al Jazeera showed that the regime has intercepted his communications with his lawyers. "Kidnapping my father was a message to anyone who dares to speak up against [Mr Kagame], that they can get to them, too," says his daughter, Carine Kanimba.

Untangling the truth about Mr Kagame's extraordinary career is not easy. Neither his regime nor his critics always tell the truth. But some facts are uncontested. He was born in 1957. His family fled an anti-Tutsi pogrom when he was a small child, and settled in neighbouring Uganda. As a teenager, he joined a tiny rebel group—a few dozen men with 27 guns—which ended up overthrowing Uganda's dictatorship in 1986. It was the first of at least three governments in three countries that Mr Kagame has had a hand in toppling.

His old rebel boss, Yoweri Museveni, became (and remains) president of Uganda. Mr Kagame served him as a director of military intelligence. There were many Tutsi exiles in the new Ugandan army, which paid and trained them. In 1990 most suddenly defected and invaded Rwanda to overthrow the Hutu dictatorship. Their leader was killed in the first week. Mr Kagame took over his forces, known as the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF).

The odds were stacked against him. The RPF said it was a movement for all Rwandans, but many Hutus, who were roughly 85% of the population, saw it as an invading Tutsi army. Still, Mr Kagame managed to seize control of part of the country. A ceasefire in 1993 left neither side satisfied. In April 1994 a plane carrying the Hutu president was shot down. (Who fired the missile is hotly disputed.) Hutu extremists, who had been stockpiling machetes, began a genocide of Tutsis.

In 100 days the army, Hutu militias and farmers slaughtered perhaps 500,000 people: mostly Tutsis, but also some Hutus who refused to take part. Mr Kagame stopped the genocide by shooting his way to power. He has run the country ever since.

Stopping the genocide was a great achievement. But some witnesses add details at odds with the monochromatically heroic tale taught in Rwanda today. Ms Wrong spent years interviewing members of the RPF who have fallen out with their leader. They describe a man both brilliant and astonishingly ruthless.

As a guerrilla in Uganda, he was a master of counter-intelligence, carrying a stick, not a gun. To get rid of a troublesome local government chief, he had a letter drafted thanking him for his help, signed by rebels. The man was executed by his own side. Mr Kagame was also in charge of weeding out traitors. If two rebels who were chatting fell silent when a third appeared, this could be taken as evidence that they were plotting, an ex-rebel told Ms Wrong, requesting anonymity. Some were executed with a single blow to the head with a short-handled hoe, which could also be used to scratch a shallow grave.

During and shortly after the civil war, RPF fighters massacred tens of thousands of Hutus in Rwanda, according to a suppressed UN report. After Mr Kagame seized power, some 2m Hutus, including many guilty of genocide, fled into Congo (then called Zaire). Some launched raids back into Rwanda. Mr Kagame invaded Congo to crush them, and slaughtered tens of thousands more.

Congo's dictator, Mobutu Sese Seko, sheltered the génocidaires. So Mr Kagame's men marched 1,000 miles across a country 89 times Rwanda's size and overthrew him. In his place they installed a corrupt Congolese guerrilla, Laurent Kabila, and when he refused to take orders from Kigali, they invaded again. The resulting war sucked in several neighbouring states and cost somewhere between 800,000 and 5m lives, mostly from war-induced disease and hunger. It degenerated into a scramble for Congo's minerals, which continues today. Mr Kabila was shot dead by a bodyguard, who was then swiftly killed. No one is sure who ordered the assassination. But Karegeya, Mr Kagame's late spy chief, told Filip Reyntjens of the University of Antwerp that it was Rwanda.

Mr Kagame's apologists tend to focus on the order he has imposed on Rwanda, rather than the mayhem he uncorked in Congo. Some argue that his ruthlessness is necessary. Were he ever to relax his grip, they fear, Hutu extremists might once again try to eliminate Rwanda's Tutsis.

His economic record has also persuaded many donors to overlook human-rights abuses. Rwanda has received about 50% more aid per head than other similarly poor countries in the region such as Mozambique or Malawi (see chart 1). Donors view it as less corrupt and better at using aid to kick-start growth than messier democracies. At first glance, the data bear this out (see chart 2). In the 15 years to 2019, before the pandemic struck, Rwanda posted annual average growth in GDP of almost 8%. This was double the African average. Granted, Rwanda started from a very low base—the economy shrank by more than 50% immediately after the genocide. But the IMF thinks it has still grown much faster than might have been expected.

"Rwanda's track record, while not perfect, can be seen as one of the best—if not the best—examples where international aid has been effective," argues the IMF. Whereas in some countries donors' cash has slipped into politicians' pockets, in Rwanda much of it has been channelled into infrastructure. The results of this can be seen on Kigali's skyline: dozens of shiny new hotels, a brightly coloured conference centre and an efficient airport.

Mr Kagame's civil service is effective and reasonably meritocratic. Jobs are advertised and applicants sit fair exams (though many Hutus still feel that the plums go to Tutsis). Since 2014 Rwanda has come first in sub-Saharan Africa on the World Bank's annual ranking of the quality of countries' policies and institutions.

According to official statistics, the pay-off for Rwandans has been large. The poverty rate fell by seven percentage points between 2011 and 2017. Since 2000 the shares of mothers dying in childbirth, and of infants dying, have gone from the worst in east Africa to the best.

Disputed numbers

There are worries, however, that some numbers have been manipulated. After the global financial crisis of 2008, Mr Kagame insisted that Rwanda should report improbable GDP growth of 11%, recalls David Himbara, a former economic adviser. Mr Himbara quit soon after, and now lives in exile and in fear. The IMF quietly estimated that Rwanda's growth that year was 1.7%.

Some academics note a discrepancy between consumption per person in the national accounts (which are used to calculate GDP) and calculations based on surveys. In theory both numbers should move in tandem, since they are different ways of measuring roughly the same thing. But since 2005 Rwanda's figures have diverged, with surveys showing that consumption has stagnated, despite seemingly impressive GDP growth. Some economists reckon that the gap between the two had widened to about 50% by 2013. The government says its figures are sound.

Rwanda's reduction in poverty has also been questioned. The government employs a lower poverty threshold than most other countries. Using the international threshold of the equivalent of $1.90 per day, 56% of Rwandans were extremely poor in 2017, says the World Bank; by the government's measure, 38% were. Mr Reyntjens reckons that much of the official reduction of poverty is due to a change in the way it was calculated. In 2011 Rwanda's poverty line was based on the cost of buying a basket of food that accurately reflected what poor Rwandans ate. In 2014 it reduced the poverty threshold by 19% by selecting a different basket, with the same number of calories, that they might in theory buy. Had it not changed the basket, its calculations would have shown that poverty actually rose over that period, rather than falling.

Not all outsiders agree. Phil Clark of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London thinks that the economists arguing poverty has increased are "categorically wrong". "Anyone who's really looking at Rwanda over the last ten to 15 to 20 years, particularly going out into the countryside, is just struck by how better-off people are than they were at the end of the 1990s or in the early 2000s," he says.

Whatever happened in the years up to 2014, there is now a consensus that progress has, if not ground to a halt, at least slowed. The World Bank reckons that between 2014 and 2017 the share of Rwandans who are poor was stagnant. This was partly because of government policies that discourage people from moving to cities and taking informal jobs, where they would earn more than by staying on the farm, even if they did make the streets noisier.

The outlook for economic growth is also grim. The pandemic has crushed tourism. Aid, which was worth 17% of GDP in the fiscal year ending 2006, had fallen to less than 10% last year. Public debt as a share of GDP has been shooting up—from 26% in 2013 to a projected 70% next year. Despite improvements in rankings such as the World Bank's ease of doing business index, Rwanda has struggled to attract much investment. This is partly because its economy is too small to excite multinationals, but also because the ruling party has a habit of muscling in and demanding shares in successful firms started by Rwandans.

Mr Kagame's intolerance of dissent surely affects the quality of advice he receives. Aides are jumpy. Mr Himbara says he saw Mr Kagame (pictured below) flog his finance director with a cane over a trivial problem involving curtains. Karegeya recounted a conversation from 2003, when Mr Kagame was running for election against a moderate Hutu who has since fled to Belgium. Karegeya suggested that Mr Kagame should claim to have won 65% of the vote—a solid win, but not ridiculous. The army chief said, no, he should claim 100%. The official tally gave him 95%. Karegeya was later jailed for insubordination; he defected soon after he was released.

The hard man of the hills

How popular is Mr Kagame? It is impossible to say. One ruling-party agent watches each cluster of ten households. "They know who came to visit you at night. They know what you ate," says Mr Ndayizeye, the opposition radio host. In public, Rwandans repeat the official line that there are no Hutus and Tutsis any more, only Rwandans. But do they believe it?

Odette fled Rwanda in 1994 when she was 11. She has lived in a tarpaulin shack in a refugee camp in Congo ever since. She tried to return home in 2017, but found that her family's farm was occupied by a politician. "When I told him I wanted the fields back…he threatened to kill me," she says. "I was scared to go to the Ministry of Justice, as the Rwandan authorities always end up calling you a génocidaire."

For all the rosy development statistics, Rwandans seem miserable. A global happiness survey in 2020 placed Rwanda 150th out of 153 countries, ahead only of Zimbabwe, South Sudan and Afghanistan.

Mr Kagame constantly shuffles his security team to make it harder for anyone to mount a coup. Opposition groups are scattered and disunited, ranging in ideology from peaceful liberals to violent bigots. Armed groups mount occasional terrorist attacks, but a UN expert reckons there are only a few hundred former génocidaires left in the main anti-Rwandan guerrilla groups in Congo. "Obviously no armed group can walk on Kigali," he says.

Under the current law, Mr Kagame could rule until 2034, when he will be 76. He could presumably change the constitution again to extend his time in office still further. He has offered no succession plan.

Nic Cheeseman of the University of Birmingham draws a worrying analogy with Ethiopia. Like Rwanda, it was run for many years by a clever, disciplined autocrat who kept a lid on ethnic antagonism and promoted economic development. However, after that strongman, Meles Zenawi, died in 2012, his successors could not hold the country together. Civil war has erupted, along ethnic lines.

"The main question facing authoritarian development in Africa has always been whether the economic gains achieved under repressive rule are sustainable," Mr Cheeseman recently wrote. "Critics of this model worried that sooner or later, exclusionary political systems would face major challenges from marginalised groups and individuals, and that these challenges could undermine development plans. Recent events in Ethiopia suggest that these fears were well-founded."

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Paragon or prison?"



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"Hate Cannot Drive Out Hate. Only Love Can Do That", Dr. Martin Luther King.
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[Rwanda Forum] Bientôt interdiction de toute activité du FPR sur tout le territoire belge.

Triple i, Nous espérons que la mesure va aussi vous frapper tout comme le petit-fils Ngurube même s'il est l'actuel Mumotsi en chef ...

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